Shadowing Lemma and Chaotic Orbit Determination

Orbit determination is possible for a chaotic orbit of a dynamical system, given a finite set of observations, provided the initial conditions are at the central time. In a simple discrete model, the standard map, we tackle the problem of chaotic orbit determination when observations extend beyond the predictability horizon. If the orbit is hyperbolic, a shadowing orbit is computed by the least squares orbit determination. We test both the convergence of the orbit determination iterative procedure and the behaviour of the uncertainties as a function of the maximum number $n$ of map iterations observed. When the initial conditions belong to a chaotic orbit, the orbit determination is made impossible by numerical instability beyond a computability horizon, which can be approximately predicted by a simple formula. Moreover, the uncertainty of the results is sharply increased if a dynamical parameter is added to the initial conditions as parameter to be estimated. The uncertainty of the dynamical parameter decreases like $n^a$ with $a<0$ but not large (of the order of unity). If only the initial conditions are estimated, their uncertainty decreases exponentially with $n$. If they belong to a non-chaotic orbit the computational horizon is much larger, if it exists at all, and the decrease of the uncertainty is polynomial in all parameters, like $n^a$ with $a\simeq 1/2$. The Shadowing Lemma does not dictate what the asymptotic behaviour of the uncertainties should be. These phenomena have significant implications, which remain to be studied, in practical problems of orbit determination involving chaos, such as the chaotic rotation state of a celestial body and a chaotic orbit of a planet-crossing asteroid undergoing many close approaches

Asteroid proper elements and secular resonances

In a series of papers (e.g., Knezevic, 1991; Milani and Knezevic, 1990; 1991) we reported on the progress we were making in computing asteroid proper elements, both as regards their accuracy and long-term stability. Additionally, we reported on the efficiency and 'intelligence' of our software. At the same time, we studied the associated problems of resonance effects, and we introduced the new class of 'nonlinear' secular resonances; we determined the locations of these secular resonances in proper-element phase space and analyzed their impact on the asteroid family classification. Here we would like to summarize the current status of our work and possible further developments

Asteroid family ages

A new family classification, based on a catalog of proper elements with $\sim 384,000$ numbered asteroids and on new methods is available. For the $45$ dynamical families with $>250$ members identified in this classification, we present an attempt to obtain statistically significant ages: we succeeded in computing ages for $37$ collisional families. We used a rigorous method, including a least squares fit of the two sides of a V-shape plot in the proper semimajor axis, inverse diameter plane to determine the corresponding slopes, an advanced error model for the uncertainties of asteroid diameters, an iterative outlier rejection scheme and quality control. The best available Yarkovsky measurement was used to estimate a calibration of the Yarkovsky effect for each family. The results are presented separately for the families originated in fragmentation or cratering events, for the young, compact families and for the truncated, one-sided families. For all the computed ages the corresponding uncertainties are provided. We found 2 cases where two separate dynamical families form together a single V-shape with compatible slopes, thus indicating a single collisional event. We have also found 3 examples of dynamical families containing multiple collisional families, plus a dubious case. We have found 2 cases of families containing a conspicuous subfamily, such that it is possible to measure the slope of a distinct V-shape, thus the age of the secondary collision. We also provide data on the central gaps appearing in some families. The ages computed in this paper are obtained with a single and uniform methodology, thus the ages of different families can be compared, providing a first example of collisional chronology of the asteroid main belt

On the Juno Radio Science Experiment: models, algorithms and sensitivity analysis

Juno is a NASA mission launched in 2011 with the goal of studying Jupiter. The probe will arrive to the planet in 2016 and will be placed for one year in a polar high-eccentric orbit to study the composition of the planet, the gravity and the magnetic field. The Italian Space Agency (ASI) provided the radio science instrument KaT (Ka-Band Translator) used for the gravity experiment, which has the goal of studying the Jupiter's deep structure by mapping the planet's gravity: such instrument takes advantage of synergies with a similar tool in development for BepiColombo, the ESA cornerstone mission to Mercury. The Celestial Mechanics Group of the University of Pisa, being part of the Juno Italian team, is developing an orbit determination and parameters estimation software for processing the real data independently from NASA software ODP. This paper has a twofold goal: first, to tell about the development of this software highlighting the models used, second, to perform a sensitivity analysis on the parameters of interest to the mission.Comment: Accepted for publication in MONTHLY NOTICES of the Royal Astronomical Society 2014 October 31. Received 2014 July 28; in original form 2013 October

Constraining the Nordtvedt parameter with the BepiColombo Radioscience experiment

BepiColombo is a joint ESA/JAXA mission to Mercury with challenging objectives regarding geophysics, geodesy and fundamental physics. The Mercury Orbiter Radioscience Experiment (MORE) is one of the on-board experiments, including three different but linked experiments: gravimetry, rotation and relativity. The aim of the relativity experiment is the measurement of the post-Newtonian parameters. Thanks to accurate tracking between Earth and spacecraft, the results are expected to be very precise. However, the outcomes of the experiment strictly depends on our "knowledge" about solar system: ephemerides, number of bodies (planets, satellites and asteroids) and their masses. In this paper we describe a semi-analytic model used to perform a covariance analysis to quantify the effects, on the relativity experiment, due to the uncertainties of solar system bodies parameters. In particular, our attention is focused on the Nordtvedt parameter $\eta$ used to parametrize the strong equivalence principle violation. After our analysis we estimated $\sigma[\eta]\lessapprox 4.5\times 10^{-5}$ which is about 1~order of magnitude larger than the "ideal" case where masses of planets and asteroids have no errors. The current value, obtained from ground based experiments and lunar laser ranging measurements, is $\sigma[\eta]\approx 4.4\times 10^{-4}$. Therefore, we conclude that, even in presence of uncertainties on solar system parameters, the measurement of $\eta$ by MORE can improve the current precision of about 1~order of magnitude

Asteroid families classification: exploiting very large data sets

The number of asteroids with accurately determined orbits increases fast. The catalogs of asteroid physical observations have also increased, although the number of objects is still smaller than in the orbital catalogs. We developed a new approach to the asteroid family classification by combining the Hierarchical Clustering Method (HCM) with a method to add new members to existing families. This procedure makes use of the much larger amount of information contained in the proper elements catalogs, with respect to classifications using also physical observations for a smaller number of asteroids. Our work is based on the large catalog of the high accuracy synthetic proper elements (available from AstDyS). We first identify a number of core families; to these we attribute the next layer of smaller objects. Then, we remove all the family members from the catalog, and reapply the HCM to the rest. This gives both halo families which extend the core families and new independent families, consisting mainly of small asteroids. These two cases are discriminated by another step of attribution of new members and by merging intersecting families. By using information from absolute magnitudes, we take advantage of the larger size range in some families to analyze their shape in the proper semimajor axis vs. inverse diameter plane. This leads to a new method to estimate the family age (or ages). The results from the previous steps are then analyzed, using also auxiliary information on physical properties including WISE albedos and SDSS color indexes. This allows to solve some difficult cases of families overlapping in the proper elements space but generated by different collisional events. We analyze some examples of cratering families (Massalia, Vesta, Eunomia) which show internal structures, interpreted as multiple collisions. We also discuss why Ceres has no family

On-barn pig weight estimation based on body measurements by structure-from-motion (SfM)

Information on the body shape of pigs is a key indicator to monitor their performance and health and to control or predict their market weight. Manual measurements are among the most common ways to obtain an indication of animal growth. However, this approach is laborious and difficult, and it may be stressful for both the pigs and the stockman. The present paper proposes the implementation of a Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry approach as a new tool for on-barn animal reconstruction applications. This is possible also to new software tools allowing automatic estimation of camera parameters during the reconstruction process even without a preliminary calibration phase. An analysis on pig body 3D SfM characterization is here proposed, carried out under different conditions in terms of number of camera poses and animal movements. The work takes advantage of the total reconstructed surface as reference index to quantify the quality of the achieved 3D reconstruction, showing how as much as 80% of the total animal area can be characterized